The COVID19 Coronavirus is an uncertainty event. Nearly everything we need to know about it is either not available or outside our control. To make informed decisions though you must use the best available information. As of February 24, 2020 here is the best available information I have been able to find from a number of reputable sources.
- China, the origination point for the virus, is notorious for not providing accurate numbers and information. I view their numbers as a minimum.
- The fatality rate appears to be at 2.3% overall but that masks the fact that for those under 39 it is a mere 0.2% while increasing steadily from 0.4% for 40-49 to
- 1.3% 50-59,
- 3.6% 60-69,
- 8% 70-79
- 14.6% 80+
- Severity is mild in a majority of cases at 81% with 14% Severe, and 5% Critical
- Recovery Time for a mild infection is about 2 weeks with severe and critical taking 3-6 weeks.
- South Korea seems to be the most prepared country so far as testing goes. They are testing by the 10s of thousands. Whereas most other countries are less than a 1,000.
- South Korea. Italy, and Iran are the three largest outbreaks outside of China.
- Numbers of infected continue to rise outside of China.
- Carriers can be asymptomatic when spreading the virus. It is thought most people get it when exposed (within 6 feet) to an infected person. High probability if the infected person coughs or sneezes. May also be spread through infected surfaces.
- Symptoms can include Fever, Cough, and Shortness of Breath. They appear 2-14 days after exposure.
Things you can do to prepare:
- Have a at least a two week supply of necessities. At the very least, something to handle Fevers and Coughs and food for you and your family
- Wash your hands frequently, avoid touching your face, avoid getting sneezed or coughed on.
- Consider acquiring facemasks if you can find any. These are in high demand around the world.
- Have a support system in place especially if you are elderly.
- If you own, run, or are part of a business or organization review your plans for working from home, how the business plans to handle an economic slowdown from a pandemic, and how it would affect the business or organization if there is a pandemic.
- Gloves, soap, hand sanitizer, bleach, and other anti-viral cleaning solutions should be stocked up on.
- Go about your life as normal until such time as it starts to spread more rapidly in the USA. Meanwhile assess your options for self-quarantine at home. Remember recovery is 2-6 weeks!
- Talk to elderly family and friends and make sure they understand the risks. Keep in touch especially if there is a pandemic. They may become isolated or need a caregiver.
This is in many ways no different than preparing for any natural disaster. There is the pre-disaster stage where you prep and get ready. There is the disaster event. Then there is the recovery. We are in the prep and get ready time frame with the knowledge that it may never happen or that we may not be affected. That’s the best case scenario. I don’t expect a best case scenario. I expect, and I pray I am wrong, that we will have a pandemic. It will cause a lot of illness and death. We will survive and learn and become stronger. We will also, in the future, be less reliant on China for our medical care.
Sources
CDC https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-nCoV/index.html
WHO https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019
JAMA https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2762130
NECSI https://necsi.edu/individual-community-and-government-early-outbreak-response-guidelines-version-1
Also,
Systemic Risk of Pandemic via Novel Pathogens – Coronavirus: A Note https://static1.squarespace.com/static/5b68a4e4a2772c2a206180a1/t/5e2efaa2ff2cf27efbe8fc91/1580137123173/Systemic_Risk_of_Pandemic_via_Novel_Path.pdf